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Iridescent Moon
Caldari
Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.08.19 21:33:00 -
[1]
 Originally by: Nyota Sol
I admit that i do, but when it has come to PLEX I have tried to be optimistic and even invested substantially into them. However, with the recent devblog and supply-side data, I'm afraid my doom & gloom side has taken over.
Nyota, we talked about this in CCG a while back. I was right on the mark with what I was saying was happening in the PLEX market. If you want to go into this in detail sometime we can.
The one thing that was lacking for us to get a solid grip on the PLEX market was the ratio between creation and consumption. With the Dev Blog we now know this.
You had people like Clare Bear that were shouting "PLEX for a billion by the end of the year!". This was always unsubstantiated. I have gone over the whys of the price spike in June/July and why it was a bubble not a long term trend. PLEX does have a "fair and proper" value at about +/-300 million. PLEX will not rise do to the fact of all the speculators that are holding PLEX. If the market manages to edge up there will be enough players to liquidate their holdings to swamp the market and push the price down again.
With the Dev Blog I do agree, PLEX for 250 million is in the future. Jita is holding to the 300 million mark desperately but, in other regions PLEX are all ready at the 270 million ISK range... and falling. If this Blog had only come out a few weeks ago when I was loading up on PLEX at 300 million, ah, such is life.
PLEX as a manipulated and speculated market item is dead after this Dev Blog. Also the cries for ever rising GTC prices have also died. Long Live Cheap PLEX!!!!
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Iridescent Moon
Caldari
Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.08.21 17:32:00 -
[2]
Nyota is not the market manipulation type.
I have always said that PLEX have been overvalued since the middle of June. Sure, on one hand I am trying to keep the price down since I buy PLEX for consumption. On the other hand, I merely speak the truth. Anyone could see the same if they wanted to take their blinders off. On the gripping hand, I would usually leave out points that would argue against my position, why give the people who can't think for themselves any help.
In any case as Nyota said, what is going on is clear to see for anyone watching the market. The drop has been happening for a month and only the psychological 300 million number is what is keeping prices up atm. Outside of Jita prices have already fallen and will stay down for the long term.
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Iridescent Moon
Caldari
Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.08.22 18:52:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Carniflex
I myself would speculate on 250 mil area. ie 250 +/- 25 mil or so to be sustainable level considering the current supply and demand ratio.
It was quite a while ago that I ran the numbers but, after factoring increased costs and inflation and such a PLEX at 260 would be equivalent to a 30 day GTC at about 180-190 million. So 250 million ISK PLEX is possible, lower is unlikely. Then again prices outside fo Jita are always lower so PLEX at just above 200 million might be seen in a few regions.
One thing to note is that PLEX volume in Jita yesterday was higher then any time in the past month. It was also the first day where not a single PLEX was sold for more then 300 million. We are looking at a slow drift downwards over the next few weeks. PLEX should shed 1-3 million per day. I don't see Jita PLEX going for less then 260 though, I think at that point speculators would jump in again, saving for the long term. Also you would have people start activating dormant data core accounts and cashing in while the conversion was cheap. Stacked on that would be the reduced supply from the few people that would stop funding their Eve time with GTC's.
Even with all of that the stockpile of Surplus PLEX is huge and will take a long time to liquidate. Additionally most of those PLEX were purchased buy foolish speculators when PLEX were overvalued, at the 340 million and above range. They will not sell when the prices are below 300 million, it's too much of a loss. That is unless they are in desperate need of some cash.
All of these factors come togeather and tell me that PLEX will hover in the 250-270 range. PLEX is down and will be down for months.
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Iridescent Moon
Caldari
Iridescent Dawn
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Posted - 2009.08.22 19:27:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Fraps
does anyone ever compare the RM/isk value of a plex/GTC versus the illegal 3rd party RM/isk conversion. I would think that would be a more interesting aspect to consider.
I think talking about RMT like that would get the post deleted.
That being said since I am towing the company line, RMT is not worth the risk. You can get more for your money but, you can also get the money stripped form the account and banned as well. If the ISK is stripped you blew your on RL cash and got nothing for it, if you spent the ISK you have a negative wallet and have to buy GTC anyway to get yourself out of the hole. If you did not care about being baned or the negative wallet.... you probably did not care enough to do RMT for ISK anyway. GTC is such a better way to go, for everyone... eccpet the RMT guys. They can go **** themselves anyway.
(soirry for the **** language  )
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